Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
